It’s been a wild west again this season, with six of the eight seeding not being determined until the final game of the regular season.  Everyone and their mother is riding the Lakers to the finals, but there is still a lot of good teams left to make a run.  So let’s discuss the match-ups of the first round action in the West.

#1 Los Angeles Lakers vs #8 Utah Jazz

It has been a disappointing season for the Utah Jazz. Beginning the year they were predicted to have a fantastic year atop of the west, and battling against the Lakers for the #1 seed.  Well, the Jazz will be battling the Lakers, just a lot sooner in the playoffs than they wanted.  Meanwhile, despite another injury to Bynum, the Lakers have steamrolled the western conference since day one.

I see the Lakers needing no more than 5 games to dismiss the Jazz. I still don’t think they’ll get a sweep against the Jazz though. The Jazz play very well at home, and even beat the lakers once in February back in Salt Lake City. La will drop game 4, or maybe game 3 to them. But the Lakers set the tone for this matchup last tuesday. LA is out for one goal, to win it all, and that’s all.

Prediction: Lakers in 5.

#2 Denver Nuggets vs #7 New Orleans Hornets

The Nuggets have always been a solid team since the arrival of Melo, but they never have been able to take the next step to get out of the first round. The offseason when by, they traded away Camby (Their only defender), and people expected much of the same Nuggets. But no one expected Denver to be this good, and you can credit it all to Billups for leading and directing this team, including his coach.  The hornets on the other hand, have been a disappointment compared to last year. For whatever reasons, injuries, expectations, etc, they just are not as good.

The Nuggets and Hornets have had a good season series so far, splitting 2 games a piece, and all of them pretty tight games.  So the series is going to be a tight one, going 6 or 7 games, but I just feel the combination of home court advantage and Billups’ playoff experience will push Denver over the mountain into the second round.

Prediction: Nuggets in 6.

#3 San Antonio Spurs vs #6 Dallas Mavericks

This has to be the most equal chance odds for any series of all the first round match ups.  Both the Spurs and Mavs are long time rivals that constantly have tremendous games rich in action and tension.  And while they spilt the series with one another, 2-2, this Spurs team is a very different team now, than just weeks ago.  If the Spurs were operating at full strength than the Mavs would stand no chance with them in a 7 game series.  But with the loss of Manu, and the slow down of Tim Duncan, the Mavs now stand a very good chance.

The deciding factor has to be how well Parker play for the spurs, and how efficient will Jason Kidd play for the Mavs.  But I would place a lot of importance on the role players too.  Roger Mason needs to steal a game at the last second, like he has a few times in the season, just to put a dagger into the Mavs and kill their already soft-as-tissue-paper moral. And for the Mavs, their bench players, Terry and Jose Juan Barea need to have big games and spark the offense with adrenaline.

It’s gonna be a close one, but I feel the experience of the Spurs carry them through a round.  But it’ll go the distance, where the Spurs will win Game 7 on their home court.

Prediction: Spurs in 7.

#4 Portland Trailblazers vs #5 Houston Rockets

This series is intriguing because there are so many unknown factors, and questions to be answered.  First is Houston’s recent past, failing year after year to reach the second round of the playoffs, McGrady’s season ending injury, and the mid season trade of PG Skip to my Lou (Rafer Alston). The Blazers remain one big puzzle as well with their youth and lack of experience.  But each team is hungry and skilled enough to win.

Statistically each team is nearly identical, points, assists, rebounds, FG and FT%.  Rockets lead the season series 2-1, but two of those games were incredibly close. One where Roy hit a buzzer beating 3 to win in OT by 2 points. And while the Rockets are more “experienced”, mainly by default, I still like Portland to walk out of this series.  I think this is where Brandon Roy officially steps into the light of stardom and makes a name for himself by taking over the playoff series in Games 6 and 7.  Houston will put up one hell of a fight, but skill and athleticism can take you far. Without that hunger the wheels will spin slower as the series plays on.  And the young, aggressive hunger of the Blazers will ultimately win it for them.

Prediction: Blazers in 7.